User blog comment:Jeremiah Garland/World War III?/@comment-2040576-20121211230720/@comment-3112181-20121212221258

You bring up some excellent points here.

Concerning the navy - I did some further research and found out that the Democratic Republic of the Congo currently does, quite surprisingly, have its own navy, something I did not know. However, given they own 25 miles of coastline, the navy is, needless to say, in disarray and almost nonexistant. Interesting suggesting that Somalian pirates would side with the UCE. While perhaps they may hire Somalians as mercenaries, Somalia itself is too far north, and will likely be consumed in the Arab world. It is quite possible that, if this all were to happen, the UCE would abandon all thoughts of having a navy altogether. Either that, or adapt the navies of conquered territory.

Excuse my ignorance on the subject, but I remember reading that Zimbabwe is currently under control of a more or less 'tyrannical president'. While I do not remember his name, I have heard that he has been in power for several decades now, due almost entirely to vote-rigging, and human rights in the country has dwindled under his reign. This means that Zimbabwe currently holds a weak government. While countries in the area use to be communist or had communist influence, I still see some communist influence in Zimbabwe today; just look at their motto: "unity, freedom, work". Angola and Mozambique were both communist at one point or another, and as you said, there's still interest in South Africa. At this point, I'm completely clueless as to which side South Africa and the surrounding regions would take in these events: side with the EU, USA, and remain democratic, or side with Russia, China, and Iran, and establish communism. I'd like to think the former.

Again, very interesting brining up the point of geography. Also very Montesquieuan of you. The DRC is indeed mostly a jungle environment, and as you said, tropical jungles are best for guerilla warfare, as we can tell from Vietnam. Because UCE forces would, assumingly, be sufficient only in guerilla tactics, I don't see how their forces can take the countries to the south, which are obviously made up of desert/bushveld/plains. Then again, the DRC today has one of the largest populations in Africa. Larger populations, therefore, call for larger militaries, and it's possible that South Africa and its neighbours would be outnumbered in defending their lands. So, it's a very tricky call.

As for Kenya and Tanzania, both are very well-developed states within the region that could without doubt defend themselves adequately. I'm not too certain on their foreign policy and their stances with other nations, but I highly doubt either of these two countries would convert to communism or any other government of the like. On the contrary, both of these countries hold fronts of Al Qaeda, so are not far from the Muslim world.

Eh... I'm tired. Need to think on this.